Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1
at Michigan ALC Regionals
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 13.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Water Allies | 13.2% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 57.0% | +4.0 |
| Rogue | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.9% | -7.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Fire Erupting | 7.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.3% | -15.1 |
| Wind Allies | 7.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.8% | -5.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 66.6% | +12.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Luxem Assassin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 44 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 44 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vanish from sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| safeguard amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand crusader's ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, blinding steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| nullifying lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| meltdown | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| tariff ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| viridian protective trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| water resonance bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Oasis Trading Post | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, soul guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, deft executor | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| luxera's map | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, prepared scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| wind resonance bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| spirit of serene fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| fire resonance bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |